536
FXUS61 KLWX 150145 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR MUCH OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED, BUT LIGHTNING THREAT
REMAINS.
- 2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED, BUT LIGHTNING THREAT
REMAINS.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST MD, BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MIDNIGHT. LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
IN INTENSITY WITH DECREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. THIS LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY SEVERE THREAT ANY
LONGER.
MUCH COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY,
BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MID-WEEK, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LOWER HEIGHTS PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MAINTAINS A FORECAST
FULL OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY RISES AND FALLS, AS WELL AS
PERIODIC EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AID
IN AMPLE WARMING ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS
USHERS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
A MORE ACTIVE DAY LIES AHEAD FOR THURSDAY AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. A
PREPONDERANCE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THAT RETURN
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. WHILE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE, THE
COMBINATION OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS THE MAIN
REASON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A RISK AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY/SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS
DETAILS WILL CHANGE IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS FAVORS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT WITH FORECAST DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY NEAR THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY, BUT
ANY IMPACTS ARE OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATER TONIGHT WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH.
A RETURN OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER COMES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY. ANY RESTRICTIONS MID-WEEK SHOULD BE BRIEF AND TIED
TO THE D.C. AND BALTIMORE TERMINALS. A MORE POTENT FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH FAVORS A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE TIED TO THIS CONVECTION WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE MID/LATE WEEK FORECAST WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH GENERAL GUSTS AROUND
20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE SCA FOR LATER TONIGHT MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY MID- MORNING. SUB-SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE GREATER THREAT LOOMS FOR THURSDAY AS A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ABATES BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, THESE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY WITH
BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KJP
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KJP
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