008
FXUS61 KLWX 150810
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AND TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
- 2) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AND TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OF
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA, COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO ALL ZONES THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. ALL ZONES
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JUNE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
AFTER TRENDING SOMEWHAT DRIER AT THE START OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A
TREND UPWARDS IN TEMPERATURE AS HOTTER & MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP LATER IN
THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
VIRGINIA.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST PAST THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A STEMMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE. THERE IS ALREADY A 30%-45% SEVERE PROBABILITY NOTED IN
NCAR'S AI MODEL, AND A 15%-30% SEVERE PROBABILITY NOTED IN CSU'S ML
MODEL. TIMING AND EXACT HAZARDS ARE STILL THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES
BEING 5 DAYS OUT, BUT EARLY MARKERS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING AN
EARLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS FRONT WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AND ALONG THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. A RETURN OF
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER COMES ON WEDNESDAY.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THAT COULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TODAY. SUB- SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SCAS WILL BE NEEDED AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS DIMINISH TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY, BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO SUB-SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY BY FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ANNAPOLIS THROUGH
MID-MORNING AS TIDES ARE A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...KLW/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/SRT
MARINE...KLW/SRT
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