253
FXUS61 KLWX 170131
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED TONIGHT'S SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK FROM MARGINAL TO GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
- 2) A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
- 3) THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN WARM AIR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES NEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE, ALTHOUGH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AND HUMID AIR SURGE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. AS OF NOW, THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
WIND FIELD. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THEREFORE LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. IF STORMS DEVELOP, THERE
IS A HIGH CEILING FOR IMPACTS ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST ARE COMBINED WITH LACK OF FORCING MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THURSDAY GETS CLOSER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE DAY BEFORE. PRECIPITATION
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD YIELDS DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER IS FORECAST TO LIFT POLEWARD INTO THE NIGHT. AS
THIS BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTH, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE RESULT IS LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER THAT TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AREAS OFF TO THE WEST SHOULD
STAY DRY. TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S, WITH SOME LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A SUBTLE REINFORCING FRONT MAY SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA AS WELL, BUT DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE, BUT THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE DRIER, LESS HUMID
AIRMASS ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATES FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPREAD IN TIMING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS MORE MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, INSTABILITY
MAY BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERLY ADVANCE OF THE
WARM SECTOR. OVERALL IT WILL BE LESS HOT AND HUMID COMPARED TO SOME
OF THE RECENT EVENTS, SO ANY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE MORE CONDITIONAL. THE LARGEST SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES IS MONDAY,
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
NON-NEGLIGABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KDCA AS WELL AS THE BALTIMORE TERMINALS.
GENERALLY, NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS OR VISIBLITIES
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. BACKGROUND
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, AND COULD GUST
IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST
TO AROUND 25 KT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH SUNDAY BUT IS
MORE LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 2-6AM, SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS,
SOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SCAS APPEAR LIKELY
ON THURSDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMWS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY TRACK OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING
TIDES AT ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AGAIN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/BRO/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS
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