264
FXUS61 KLWX 171423
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOOKS LIKE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL WATERS
THURSDAY AND AM INVESTIGATING THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS UNUSUALLY STRONG JUNE GRADIENT WINDS
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
- 2) THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN WARM AIR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. MIXING OF LOWER DEW POINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE, ALTHOUGH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AND HUMID AIR SURGE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF OUR FORECAST
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN GARRETT, NORTHERN
ALLEGANY, AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELD. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
THEREFORE LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. IF
STORMS DEVELOP, THERE IS A HIGH CEILING FOR IMPACTS ALTHOUGH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE FORECAST ARE COMBINED WITH
LACK OF FORCING MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THURSDAY GETS CLOSER. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS GARRETT COUNTY IN MARYLAND IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
INDICATES THAT HEAVY RAINFALL, ACCOMPANYING FREQUENT SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING IN
PLACES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE DAY BEFORE. PRECIPITATION
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD YIELDS DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, BUT THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
BE THE DRIER, LESS HUMID AIRMASS ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATES FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPREAD IN TIMING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS MORE MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, INSTABILITY
MAY BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERLY ADVANCE OF THE
WARM SECTOR. OVERALL IT WILL BE LESS HOT AND HUMID COMPARED TO SOME
OF THE RECENT EVENTS, SO ANY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE MORE CONDITIONAL. THE LARGEST SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES IS MONDAY,
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTS.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LLWS
LATE TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SURFACE DECOUPLES AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. BACKGROUND
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, AND COULD GUST
IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST
TO AROUND 25 KT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH SUNDAY BUT IS
MORE LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE WHICH SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. HIGH END ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE AS MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW 35 KT WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER, REALIZATION OF THESE CONDITIONS (AND THUS
THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING) WILL DEPEND ON: (1) MIXING
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
OVERHEAD, WHICH MIGHT BE THWARTED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, AND (2)
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING STRONG ENOUGH WHEN WINDS SHIFT
WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A SECOND PEAK IN GUSTS. SMWS MAY
BE NEEDED AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY TRACK
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVOLVES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, ANOMALIES WILL PEAK TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-535.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ530-531-535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ531-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-537.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW
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