194
FXUS61 KLWX 180647
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WEAK ENERGY IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SPAWNED A
FEW BATCHES OF SHOWERS ACROSS MARYLAND, NORTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. NO THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS.
- 2) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- 3) AN ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BRING CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS.
AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ALLEGHENIES, WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MARYLAND, NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 100 EXPECTED. THIS HEAT, COMBINED WITH EFFECTS
FROM INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WIND SHEAR IN ALL LEVELS COULD
SPAWN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AREA EXTENT OF SUCH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF OUR REGION. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER AREAS MAY BE MORE
PRONE TO SUCH STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM MORE PROBABLE
LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS, WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS SEEM MORE LEGITIMATE FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE METROS AND NORTHERN HALF OF
VIRGINIA. THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND
WOULD BE MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL. LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BECOME A BIG FACTOR WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ONLY WILL DAMAGING WINDS BE
ANTICIPATED IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ALSO FROM A
SYNOPTIC OR GRADIENT VIEWPOINT AS WELL. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE ALLEGHENIES, INTERIOR
WESTERN ZONES, AND THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL ABSORB AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, LIKELY
ORIGINATING FROM ARTHUR. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD WITH HOW FAR
NORTH ADDITIONAL RAIN REACHES, BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN PARTICULAR
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LOWERING HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
AMPLIFIED BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO KEEP TRACK OF WHEN IT COMES TO DETERMINING
HOW OUR AREA MIGHT BE IMPACTED. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A
FAIRLY POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO
BE WHERE THE STORM ACTUALLY TRACKS. RIGHT NOW ALL HAZARDS ARE AT
PLAY WITH THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE WORKING WITH A CONNECTION TO THE GULF OF AMERICA, WITH 1.5 TO
2+ SIGMA PWAT ANOMALIES, SO THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. OUR AREA HAS BEEN IN A PRETTY LONGSTANDING DROUGHT
THOUGH, SO IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO, PERHAPS THIS SYSTEM BRING MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO SOME VERY DRY AREAS. AGAIN, THIS IS A VERY
COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS STAGE,
BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS COULD BE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BRING CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUN/MON, AN ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING
TIMING OF ANY SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR, BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DEPENDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
NO DAY JUMPS OUT AS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER DAY AT THIS TIME, BUT COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ON TUE/WED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SOUTHWEST WIND GRADIENT INCREASES THIS MORNING AND COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
CONVECTION COVERAGE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS EARLY CONVECTION COULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOST OF THE MORNING LEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW
COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. MRB MAY LARGELY MISS OUT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS, BUT THE STRONGEST COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE GUSTS ELSEWHERE. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IMPACTS
ARE UNCERTAIN. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY, BUT WILL
LIGHTEN UP AND TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY AT AROUND 12 TO 18
KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST WATERS
TONIGHT. HIGH END ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE NEAR THE SHORE AS AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY TRACK OVER THE WATERS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WINDS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND NEAR SCA CRITERIA IN THE
WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THEY GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WE THEN GET INTO A FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING PATTERN, WHICH
COULD NECESSITATE SCAS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOMALIES TO PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANNAPOLIS AND HAVRE DE GRACE,
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHEST. ANNAPOLIS MAY EVEN
APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ503-504-507.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-538.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530-531-535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ532>534-536-537-539>543.
DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW
AVIATION...BRO/KLW
MARINE...BRO/KLW
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