727
FXUS61 KLWX 190109
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
909 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA,
AND WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHOWERS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WINDS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- 3) ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINDS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, SERVING TO STEER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWARD RAIN WILL SPREAD AS THIS OCCURS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR
LIKELY NOW THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
FORCING, INSTABILITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND COULD SEE OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, TAKING ANY RAIN WITH IT. SKIES WILL CLEAR NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY.
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A SECONDARY FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE TOWARD THE
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SYNOPTICALLY, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
AN OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCUMBENT COLD FRONT WILL
ENHANCE LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID-ATALNTIC. THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
AS FOR TIMING, THE BULK OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING DURING THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRACKING ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. WITH THAT SAID, THERE STILL
IS SOME NOTABLE SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING THE LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH AND OTHERS TRACKING IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. DESPITE THE TRACK OF THE LOW, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS
PREVALENT ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. THIS AT LEAST MEANS
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TO HELP CURB CURRENT D1
(MODERATE) TO D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONCERNS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH GUIDANCE FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD THREAT AS A RESULT REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
DROUGHT ALTHOUGH IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS WERE TO WORK OVER AN
URBAN AREA LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS WE WORK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY, PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL LOOKING AT MORE OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COVERAGE HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED GIVEN THE FEATURES IN
PLAY. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAIN THAT WE DO SEE WILL BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN CONTINUED DROUGHT CONCERNS. AS FOR HUMIDITY, EXPECT
A GRADUAL UPTICK ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. RAIN MAY MAKE IT UP TO THE METRO TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY IAD/DCA, BUT STEADIER RAIN WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CHO. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING AND
TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVES WITH A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, SO HAVE DROPPED
THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT AND CONVERTED ALL TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A LULL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN AND THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR PASS TO THE SOUTH. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ARTHUR.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
WATER. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR THE WATERS UNDER INCREASED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AND
WATER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP AS THEY ARE PUSHED DOWN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL/EST
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/EST
MARINE...ADS/CJL/EST
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