341
FXUS61 KLWX 210751
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- 2) AFTER A MID WEEK DRY SPELL, DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE AT SEVERE
WEATHER. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TIMING AND SEVERITY OF STORMS, GIVEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED LEADING TO ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TYPE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN PA AND
NORTHERN MD. TIMING LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER A MID WEEK DRY SPELL, DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
IT'S NOW LOOKING LIKE THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT ENTIRELY
THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE SOME RENEWAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SERVES TO KICK THE
FRONT EASTWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY, HOWEVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE
MOST PLEASANT DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOW LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE APPRECIABLY, THERE WILL BE A RETURN
TO MUGGIER DEW POINTS. SPECIFIC FORCING MAY BE NEBULOUS, BUT THERE IS
A DECENT MODEL SIGNAL OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, BUT INSTABILITY
MAY BE LIMITED, SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW
(SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS ML GUIDANCE PROBS).
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY MAY BE LOWER AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BUILDS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
EAST COAST. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DOWNSTREAM JET STREAM RIPPLES COULD
STILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WINDS GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY, REMAINING OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS, SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT ASSUMING A WARM
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE NORTH.
WITH A SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE DRY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
MARINE
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SMWS LIKELY NEEDED.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY PRESENT MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MAY ALSO REQUIRE SCAS BY LATE IN THE
DAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
535>538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ531>534-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/AVS/LFR
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