250
FXUS61 KLWX 230204
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1004 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED WITH RESIDUAL
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A MARGINAL SEVERE T-STORM OUTLOOK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (375) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH
THE LAST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER EXITING THE DELMARVA AND LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST KEEPING ON AND
OFF SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z/00Z
CAMS ILLUSTRATE THIS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND INTO
SOUTHERN MD/VA PIEDMONT WHERE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SOUTHERN MD AND VA NORTHERN
NECK TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ELSEWHERE,
A RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE STABLE SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY AND CLEARING
SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S WITH UPPER 50S
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE FRONT NEARBY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (60S MOUNTAINS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A STEMMING COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS HELP TO PROVIDE
MOISTURE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH
CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOWING A RANGE OF POSSIBLE TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHERE STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS, BUT ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN HOT & HUMID BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES NOMINALLY DECREASING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES BUT QUICKLY INCREASING TO MID-90S WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70 BY NEXT MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A MASHUP OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS ON AND OFF SHOWERS PIVOT THROUGH. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING
VERY LOW. DID OPT FOR PROB30S AMONGST THE TERMINALS COMPARED TO
TEMPOS BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
REDUCED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCAS IN
EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
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