222
FXUS61 KLWX 231436
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
SLIDING EAST, WHILE INDIVIDUAL HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY, RADAR SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAINFALL IS FROM CUMBERLAND, MD TO MUSTOE, VA. THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS ARE IN AN AREA FROM I-81 IN MD AND WV TO
HARFORD COUNTY IN MARYLAND SOUTHWEST INTO THE WASHINGTON DC
AREA. RAIN RATES WITH THE HEAVIEST ARE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN 15 TO 30
MINUTES, WHILE ELSEWHERE, RAIN RATES ARE 0.10 TO 0.25 IN 30
MINUTES TO 1 HR. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 HOURS, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MD, SOUTH OF US 50 AND IN EASTERN PARTS
OF VIRGINIA FROM NEAR QUANTICO AND FREDERICKSBURG TO THE
NORTHERN NECK. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND, THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPC IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ST. MARY'S
COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN ZONE IN CHESAPEAKE BAY IN THE STERLING
AREA. A MARGINAL RISK IS FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND
AND BACK INTO THE KING GEORGE, FREDERICKSBURG AND SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTY AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HUMIDITY, ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND SHEAR TO AID IN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEPENDING ON THE
BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WILL
RESULT IN INSTABILITY. IT SEEMS THE TIMING OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE 1PM TO 5PM IN THESE AREAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, WE SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOL-AIR ADVECTION ALL
WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THESE NUMBERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A STEMMING COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS HELP TO PROVIDE
MOISTURE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH
CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOWING A RANGE OF POSSIBLE TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHERE STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS, BUT ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN HOT & HUMID BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES NOMINALLY DECREASING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES BUT QUICKLY INCREASING TO MID-90S WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70 BY NEXT MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WINDS FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
SCAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE AND ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/SRT
MARINE...LFR/KLW/SRT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page