768
FXUS61 KLWX 231919
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KING GEORGE
COUNTY IN VIRGINIA, CALVERT AND ST. MARY'S COUNTIES IN MARYLAND,
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC, AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. AS OF 3PM, MOST OF ANY INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN VA AND SOUTHERN MD, AS
WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS OF THE POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN VA AND SOUTHERN
MD, AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS OF THE POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING FOR FAR EASTERN VA, SOUTHERN MD, AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE. A SHORTWAVE- TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN VA AND SOUTHERN MD, AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT WATERS, OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN NECK OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY OUT OF OUR REGION BUT COULD STILL PACK A PUNCH OF
WIND GUSTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD COME
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FIRST,
FOLLOWED BY AREAS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A CENTER LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION ONSET COULD BEGIN FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MEANDERS OFFSHORE, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER, TIMING OF THIS FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE POSITION OF
THE CENTER LOW TO THE NORTH STILL SHOWS SOME VARIANCE. ML
PROBABILITIES STILL SHOW A LOW-END CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME MEMBERS SHOWING AN EITHER FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY COLD FRONT ARRIVAL WHILE OTHER MEMBERS SHOW IT ARRIVING
SLIGHTLY LATER. MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR TRACKING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CORRESPONDING FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT
ARRIVING WITHIN THE FRIDAY & SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE LOW
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN & THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THUS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE IN AND A POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE METROS BY NEXT
MONDAY. WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING POTENTIALLY EXTENDING ACROSS A
LARGE AREA OF CONUS, THIS GRADUAL WARMING COULD PERSIST INTO THE
LONG-TERM ALONG WITH REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE THIS
WEEKEND'S FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AT IAD, DCA, BWI AND MTN OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. LITTLE TO NO THUNDER WITH THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IS WELL TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
FRAME.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS
OFFSHORE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
WINDS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
TRANSITION NORTHERLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT THAT
COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...KLW/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/SRT
MARINE...KLW/SRT
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