240
FXUS61 KLWX 240136
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
A NICE FINISH TO THE EVENING AFTER A WET START TO THE DAY.
PWATS ARE BACK DOWN BELOW 1.2" (PER THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING) WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AS OF 9:30PM.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS/SHELTERED
HIGH VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.
IT WILL BE A BREAK FROM SUMMER WEDNESDAY WITH WAKE UP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S (COOLER
MOUNTAINS). COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLOW UPTICK IN HUMIDITY.
ANY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A CENTER LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION ONSET COULD BEGIN FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MEANDERS OFFSHORE, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER, TIMING OF THIS FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE POSITION OF
THE CENTER LOW TO THE NORTH STILL SHOWS SOME VARIANCE. ML
PROBABILITIES STILL SHOW A LOW-END CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME MEMBERS SHOWING AN EITHER FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY COLD FRONT ARRIVAL WHILE OTHER MEMBERS SHOW IT ARRIVING
SLIGHTLY LATER. MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR TRACKING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CORRESPONDING FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT
ARRIVING WITHIN THE FRIDAY & SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE LOW
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN & THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THUS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE IN AND A POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE METROS BY NEXT
MONDAY. WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING POTENTIALLY EXTENDING ACROSS A
LARGE AREA OF CONUS, THIS GRADUAL WARMING COULD PERSIST INTO THE
LONG-TERM ALONG WITH REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE THIS
WEEKEND'S FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS
OFFSHORE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN
BAY, NORTHERN TIDAL POTOMAC, AND BALTIMORE HARBOR THROUGH
11AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUB-SCA LEVELS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCAS POTENTIALLY NEEDED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELING.
WINDS DROP BACK BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSITION NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SMWS EACH
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME BASED UPON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
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