466
FXUS61 KLWX 250755
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS REFRESHED WITH LATEST THINKING ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND FRI.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE ACROSS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE
TODAY OR THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MD INTO EASTERN
WV BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SEEMS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE (I.E. 850 MB DEWPOINTS LESS THAN
10C) AND 850-700 MB RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS, BUT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE DEEPENS FRI INTO SAT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING
ABOVE 10C FRI AND OVER 15C ON SAT. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 850-700 MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED AFTER 18Z FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE-TROUGH FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE SCT-NMRS DEEP CONVECTION. FRI POSES THE GREATER
RISK OF SOME SEVERE WX/DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO HOT AIR MASS AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, WHILE SATURDAY POSES A BIGGER RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. THE FRONT FINALLY STARTS
CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW GRADUAL
PROCESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY WITH THE
FRONT OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY START LOSING ITS
DEFINITION MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THUS EXPECT LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.
HEAT WILL LIKELY RAMP UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A
FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE HIGH TEMPERATURE DATA, RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 100. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ELEVATED, SO
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 IF THE HOTTER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF SUBSIDENCE WINS
OUT, OR IF THERE MIGHT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FAIR WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY FRI AND SAT
AFTERNOONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH. VFR/DRY
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY MONDAY.
MARINE
SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-NMRS CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY POSE
A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMWS. CONVECTION
SATURDAY WILL POSE A BIGGER THREAT FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH. A THUNDERSTORM COULD REMAIN POSSIBLE
IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/CJL
MARINE...ADS/LFR/CJL
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