770
FXUS61 KLWX 260754
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS INTRODUCED BY SPC
FOR TODAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
- (1) A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- (2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 330 AM, RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MD IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT ENOUGH
BREAKS WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF
THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD DC.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE,
AROUND 30-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL-LAPSE RATES, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE STORMS SOME
ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS A LOWER END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRESS OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, CAUSING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, ALBEIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
HEAT WILL LIKELY STEADILY RAMP UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE DATA, IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S BY MID
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
100 BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF SUBSIDENCE WINS OUT, OR IF THERE MIGHT BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME,
THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS APPEAR ISOLATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO WESTERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED TO ADVERTISE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A MUCH LOWER END THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. LOWER CEILINGS MAY
ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS HINT AT IFR
CEILINGS. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THOROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR OCCURS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY, AND LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO RELAX LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER THE MAIN
CHANNEL OF THE BAY, BUT MAY VARY IN DIRECTION NEAR THE SHORE AND
OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SMWS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ON SATURDAY AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAY BY TUESDAY
EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDES WILL REACH WELL INTO ACTION STAGE AT ANNAPOLIS THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD HOLD JUST SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
BALTIMORE AND HAVRE DE GRACE SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO ACTION
STAGE THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER SOUTHERLY WINDS RELAX LATER THIS MORNING.
ANNAPOLIS MAY REACH LOW-END ACTION STAGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE HIGHER OF THE TWO TIDES. WATER LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE ELSEWHERE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KJP
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