247
FXUS61 KLWX 261410
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HARFORD (HAVRE DE GRACE) HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED. STORMS APPROACHING CHARLESTON
WV IS LIKELY A PRECURSOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
- (1) A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- (2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND
NORTHERN MD INTO PA/NJ AS OF MID MORNING, WITH NOTABLE BREAKS
AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER HEATING TAKING PLACE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ARCS FROM ROUGHLY BALTIMORE MD WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR FRANKLIN WV.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE,
AROUND 30-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL-LAPSE RATES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE STORMS SOME ORGANIZATION
AS WELL AS A LOWER END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS MAY BE
AUGMENTED SOME BY AN UPSTREAM VORT (WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ORIGIN)
OVER NORTHEAST KY THAT WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRESS OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, CAUSING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, ALBEIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
HEAT WILL LIKELY STEADILY RAMP UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE DATA, IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S BY MID
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
100 BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF SUBSIDENCE WINS OUT, OR IF THERE MIGHT BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME,
THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS APPEAR ISOLATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TEMPO GROUPS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED TO
ADVERTISE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT PARTICULARLY FROM DCA TO CHO.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A MUCH LOWER END THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. LOWER
CEILINGS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS
HINT AT IFR CEILINGS. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THOROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR OCCURS ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AND LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
MARINE
WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT MAY VARY IN DIRECTION NEAR THE SHORE AND
OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY AS WELL. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAY BY TUESDAY
EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RELAX. ANNAPOLIS MAY REACH LOW-END ACTION STAGE
EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND FOR THE HIGHER OF THE TWO TIDES. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE ELSEWHERE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KJP
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