082
FXUS61 KLWX 270135
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGES
- (1) A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- (2) EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EASTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN ST. MARY'S
COUNTY IN MARYLAND ARE SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITHIN
THIS LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE IS OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AVERAGE RAIN RATES ARE 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH PER HOUR. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS UNDER THIS LINE THROUGH
TODAY IS 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS
CONSTANT MOVING OF BOTH THE ENTIRE LINE OF CONVECTION AND
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS SO THAT FLOODING CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. THERE ARE OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE HAD ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTH-
CENTRAL VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. THIS
CONVECTION COULD SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STILL IN A
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT IN MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS ANYWAY.
ALL OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY HAS FIRED OFF OF A SLOW-
MOVING TO STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHERE MULTIPLE MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG IT AND IGNITE SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW MANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS ANY
ONE PARTICULAR ZONE OR TWO WILL DETERMINE IF FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN OR NOT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK HEADING
INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY.
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY/WEEKEND.
STRONG/BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLIMB
TOWARD RECORD LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RUNNING BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WITH
HIGHS FOR MOST IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. HEAT INDICES
EACH AFTERNOON WITH RUN BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES WITH A FEW
READINGS AROUND 110 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE I-95 METRO CORRIDOR AND
DOWN ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT REGION. MINIMAL RELIEF IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS THE HEAT PEAKS MID TO
LATE WEEK. NO RELIEF AT NIGHT EITHER WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (UPPER 70S-80 URBAN AREAS) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/HEAT.
EVEN WITH THAT SAID, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE
DATA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THIS IS DUE TOP THE
PLACEMENT AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH ANY T-STORM
CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIGHT NOW, ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE IN PART TO THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE. WITH
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. YOU COMBINE THIS WITH ANY POTENTIAL RIPPLES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OR A BAY/RIVER BREEZE TO GET
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY BOTH THE CSU/CIPS
OUTLOOKS ALONG WITH GOOGLE WXNEXT AI MODEL WHICH SUGGEST THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE FRIDAY JULY 3RD AND SATURDAY JULY 4
TIMEFRAME. SOMETHING WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST SHIFTS. HISTORICALLY, NEAR RECORD SUMMER HEAT OFTEN
ENDS WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND LATEST
GUIDANCE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THE HEAT NEXT WEEKEND (JULY 4).
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ISOLATED SPOTS OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY NEAR CHO. THERE COULD BE OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE IAD, MRB OR DCA AREAS
THAT COULD DROP CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE METROS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY NEAR MRB/CHO.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY AREA AND TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY AS WELL. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO LATE WEEKEND. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE TIED TO CHANNELING MAINLY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE MIDDLE AND OPEN
WATERS WHERE BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK NEXT WEEK. THE NUMBERS BELOW
AREN'T A FORECAST, BUT RATHER A REFERENCE FOR HISTORICAL CONTEXT
FOR COMPARISON. LATEST FORECAST: WEATHER.GOV/LWX.
==================================================================
*** ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS ***
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 107 (SET ON JUL 10, 1936)
WASHINGTON 106 (SET ON JUL 20, 1930 + AUG 06, 1918)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 105 (SET ON JUL 22, 2011)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 108 (SET ON JUL 07, 2012 + JUL 22, 2011)
ANNAPOLIS 106 (SET ON AUG 06, 1918)
HAGERSTOWN 105 (SET ON JUL 14, 1954)
MARTINSBURG 112 (SET ON JUL 11, 1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 107 (SET ON SEP 07, 1954 + 3 OTHER TIMES)
==================================================================
*** ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOWS ***
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 83 (SET ON AUG 05, 1930 + 2 OTHER TIMES)
WASHINGTON 84 (SET ON JUL 24, 2011 + 2 OTHER TIMES)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 79 (SET ON AUG 08, 2007)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 88 (SET ON JUL 02, 2011 AND JUL 10, 1993)
ANNAPOLIS 92 (SET ON JUL 07, 1994)
HAGERSTOWN 86 (SET ON JUN 15, 1899)
MARTINSBURG 86 (SET ON JUL 21, 1930)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 85 (SET ON AUG 07, 1918)
==================================================================
*** JULY MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS ***
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 107 (SET ON JUL 10, 1936)
WASHINGTON 106 (SET ON JUL 20, 1930)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 105 (SET ON JUL 22, 2011)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 108 (SET ON JUL 07, 2012 + JUL 22, 2011)
ANNAPOLIS 105 (SET ON JUL 21, 1930 + JUL 02, 1901)
HAGERSTOWN 105 (SET ON JUL 14, 1954)
MARTINSBURG 112 (SET ON JUL 11, 1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 107 (SET ON JUL 10, 1936 + JUL 20, 1930)
==================================================================
*** JULY MONTHLY RECORD WARM LOWS ***
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 83 (SET ON JUL 21, 1930)
WASHINGTON 84 (SET ON JUL 24, 2011 + 2 OTHER TIMES)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 78 (SET ON JUL 24, 2010 + JUL 08, 2010)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 88 (SET ON JUL 22, 2011 + JUL 10, 1993)
ANNAPOLIS 92 (SET ON JUL 07, 1994)
HAGERSTOWN 83 (SET ON JUL 24, 2010)
MARTINSBURG 86 (SET ON JUL 21, 1930)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 84 (SET ON JUL 22, 1930)
==================================================================
*** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
VALID: JUL 01
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 103 (1901) | 80 (1933 + 1901)
WASHINGTON 102 (1901) | 79 (1977)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 96 (2012) | 72 (2017 + 3)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 101 (2012) | 82 (2012)
ANNAPOLIS 103 (1901) | 79 (1945 + 1901)
HAGERSTOWN 100 (1901) | 74 (2017 + 1977)
MARTINSBURG 102 (1933) | 74 (1933)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 101 (2012 + 1945) | 78 (1901)
==================================================================
*** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
VALID: JUL 02
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 103 (1901) | 80 (1901)
WASHINGTON 101 (1898) | 79 (2012 + 1872)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 98 (1966) | 75 (2022)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 102 (1966) | 84 (2002)
ANNAPOLIS 105 (1901) | 80 (1901)
HAGERSTOWN 100 (1966) | 74 (2018 + 1901)
MARTINSBURG 102 (1933 + 1931) | 75 (1933 + 1901)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 100 (1954) | 76 (1910)
==================================================================
*** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
VALID: JUL 03
==================================================================
BALTIMORE 104 (1898) | 80 (1898)
WASHINGTON 101 (1966 + 2) | 80 (2018)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT 103 (1966) | 73 (2018 + 2)
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN 102 (1997) | 82 (2018 + 1983)
ANNAPOLIS 100 (1901) | 84 (1896)
HAGERSTOWN 102 (1966) | 76 (2002)
MARTINSBURG 102 (1941 + 1911) | 74 (1980)
CHARLOTTESVILLE 100 (1966 + 1954) | 79 (1911)
PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) CONTEXT...
AREA (OBS SITE) RECORDS SINCE
------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (BWI) JAN 1872
WASHINGTON (DCA) JUL 1872
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT (IAD) JAN 1960
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN (DMH) JUL 1950
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) JAN 1894
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) JAN 1899
MARTINSBURG (MRB) JAN 1891
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) JAN 1893
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/EST
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/EST
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