880
FXUS61 KLWX 141938
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SET AT SOME LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SET AT SOME LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WI PER 18Z
RAOBS WITH -3C 500 MB TEMPERATURE AND 6000-METER HEIGHTS MEASURED
AT DAVENPORT IA WILL BUILD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT 48 HRS.
BUBBLE OF VERY HOT 850 MB AIR WITH 26C MEASURED AT GREEN BAY, WI
AND 25C AIR OVER MI AND WI PER NUCAPS DATA WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA WED AND THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND THU WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED 100F. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S, THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 100F WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SO,
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WED AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE REISSUED FOR THU. SOME DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL FOR
SOME LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
STRONGLY CAPPED WED, BUT ON THU, A FEW CAMS SUGGEST RISK OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
GEOCOLOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING A LAYER OF MODERATELY
DENSE SMOKE ALOFT OVERHEAD ORIGINITATING FROM LARGE FIRE
COMPLEXES IN WESTERN ONTARIO, CA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE SMOKE MAY CIRCULATE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. SO, EXPECT GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT REMAIN
HOT ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST, LEADING TO LESSER INSTABILITY AND
DECREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DESCEND DOWN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, DRAWING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST
SOLUTIONS FAVOR DEWPOINTS REACHING NEAR 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THAT COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY TURN STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH CAPE/DCAPE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY SUNDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
REMAINS UPSTREAM, KEEPING A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN VSBYS EXCEPT AROUND
SUNRISE. RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, VERY
HOT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER BAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SET FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS HOTTER.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 15 (WEDNESDAY) AND JULY 16 (THURSDAY).
=================================================================
JULY 15 RECORD DAILY HIGH/WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
=================================================================
BALTIMORE MD 102 (2024, 1995) 79 (1995, 1936)
WASHINGTON DC 102 (2024) 81 (2024)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT VA 99 (2024) 75 (2024)
BALTIMORE (DOWNTOWN) MD 101 (2024) 85 (1988)
ANNAPOLIS MD 101 (1995) 81 (1896)
HAGERSTOWN MD 102 (1954) 78 (2024)
MARTINSBURG WV 107 (1936) 75 (1995)
CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 102 (1954) 76 (1936)
=================================================================
JULY 16 RECORD DAILY HIGH/WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
=================================================================
BALTIMORE MD 104 (2024, 1988) 78 (1879)
WASHINGTON DC 104 (2024, 1988) 84 (1983)
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT VA 104 (1988) 74 (2013)
BALTIMORE (DOWNTOWN) MD 105 (2024) 85 (2013)
ANNAPOLIS MD 98 (1997, 1900) 79 (2024, 2013, 1955)
HAGERSTOWN MD 104 (1988) 76 (2024)
MARTINSBURG WV 107 (1988) 77 (1983)
CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 102 (1988) 82 (1983)
PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) INFORMATION (RECORDS SINCE):
BALTIMORE MD - JULY 1872
WASHINGTON DC - JANUARY 1872
STERLING - DULLES AIRPORT VA - JANUARY 1960
BALTIMORE (DOWNTOWN) MD - JULY 1950
ANNAPOLIS MD - JANUARY 1894
HAGERSTOWN MD - JANUARY 1899
MARTINSBURG WV - JANUARY 1891
CHARLOTTESVILLE VA - JANUARY 1893
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ026>031-
040-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504.
MARINE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/KJP
CLIMATE...DHOF
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