886
FXUS61 KLWX 230750
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MORE THAN SUBTLE CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2) RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND 50S
DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY SPREADING SOUTHWARD. ANY RAIN SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIER UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY TO
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE LOW, WITH DEW POINTS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR MOST AREAS WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY RURAL AREAS COULD DROP
INTO THE 50S, WHILE THE URBAN CENTERS AND BAYSHORE REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER.
AS THE HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
HELP DRAW SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD COMBINE WITH THE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN IS MOST PROBABLE
WEST OF I-81, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
BUCKLES. WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START CREEPING UP IN
RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS, SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
UL TROFFING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE NE
US. S/WVS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD NW H5 FLOW WITH SOME
GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF UL EVOLUTION, A RETURN TO A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN IS FAVORED WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PWS/SFC RH. HEAT
BUILDS GRADUALLY AS WELL, BUT NOTHING NEAR HEADLINE LEVELS AT
THIS TIME. THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND T-STORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE GRADUALLY
EACH DAY THROUGH TUE (WHEN THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS A CDFNT COULD
APPROACH), BUT ADMITTEDLY VARIES WHICH DAY IS HIGHEST BETWEEN
GUIDANCE. ML GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS TUE AS THE HIGHEST DAY FOR SVR
WX, THOUGH LOW PROBS EXIST ALMOST DAILY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE TO NO WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
TO CHO BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE CURRENTLY AT MRB AND CHO.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS MON/TUE WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY CONFINED TO DIURNAL T-STORMS. LIGHT SE'LY WINDS MON BECOME
SW'LY MON EVE AND EVENTUALLY N OF W BY TUE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON WATERS OPEN TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THAT HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED OR BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS, ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS LIKELY BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. CHANNELING COULD
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BAY MONDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE SMWS FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS SHOULD REACH A MINIMUM TODAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEFORE SNAPPING BACK TONIGHT. ANOMALIES WILL REBOUND WITHIN
ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH
MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>532-539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-
534-537-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB
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