656
FXUS61 KLWX 232347
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
747 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2) RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER GL TODAY TO
NE BY FRI NIGHT. THE CAA ON N'LY WINDS WILL SUPPORT BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
BE LOW, WITH TDS OBSERVED IN THE 40S TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR MOST AREAS WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY RURAL AREAS COULD DROP
INTO THE 50S, WHILE THE URBAN AND BAYSHORE REMAIN IN THE MID
60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COLDER VALLEYS DROPPED INTO UPPER
40S. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AS THE HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED TO THE NE, AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL HELP
DRAW SOME MOISTURE BACK NWRD FROM THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE SE-US. S/WVS IN THE NW FLOW COULD COMBINE WITH THE
CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AT
TIMES FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS RAIN IS MOST
PROBABLE WEST OF I-81, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
S BUCKLES. WHILE LOW TEMPS WILL START CREEPING UP IN RESPONSE
TO HIGHER TDS, SAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
UL TROFFING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE NE
US. S/WVS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD NW H5 FLOW WITH SOME
GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF UL EVOLUTION, A RETURN TO A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN IS FAVORED WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PWS/SFC RH. HEAT
BUILDS GRADUALLY AS WELL, BUT NOTHING NEAR HEADLINE LEVELS AT
THIS TIME. THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND T-STORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE GRADUALLY
EACH DAY THROUGH TUE (WHEN THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS A CDFNT COULD
APPROACH), BUT ADMITTEDLY VARIES WHICH DAY IS HIGHEST BETWEEN
GUIDANCE. ML GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS TUE AS THE HIGHEST DAY FOR SVR
WX, THOUGH LOW PROBS EXIST ALMOST DAILY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LITTLE TO NO WX IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME E'LY FRI AND
SE'LY SAT BUT REMAIN LIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CHO
SAT NIGHT.
LOW CHANCE OF T-STORMS SUN AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT MRB AND CHO.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS MON/TUE WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY CONFINED TO DIURNAL T-STORMS. LIGHT SE'LY WINDS MON BECOME
SW'LY MON EVE AND EVENTUALLY N OF W BY TUE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH E'LY WINDS FRI AND SE'LY SAT AND SUN. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED OR BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS, SCAS ARE
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS LIKELY BECOME S'LY MON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. CHANNELING COULD ENHANCE WINDS
ALONG THE BAY MON NIGHT. COULD HAVE SMWS FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS SHOULD REACH A MINIMUM TODAY IN N'LY FLOW BEFORE
SNAPPING BACK TONIGHT. ANOMALIES WILL REBOUND WITHIN ONSHORE
FLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
REACHING ACTION STAGE. ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS BY SAT NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CPB
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