319
FXUS61 KLWX 241418 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2) RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ORIGINATING FROM CANADA, REMAINS OVERHEAD
TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
COMING OFF OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL USHER IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EARLY TO MID WEEK. IN SPITE OF MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES
DURING THE PERIOD, NEXT WEEK COULD CARRY A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
THE KEY PLAYERS WILL BE A LONGSTANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, A DEEP
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY, AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO NOT SHOW A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA, THE SETUP CERTAINLY LENDS ITSELF TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN. A SERIES OF "RIDGE ROLLERS" ARE LIKELY TO CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THIS JUNCTURE, THE MACHINE-LEARNING
ALGORITHMS FAVOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD PRESENT THE MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY ON ITS HEELS. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THIS
MID/LATE WEEK PATTERN SHIFT, DEW POINTS SLOWLY COME DOWN TO FINISH
OUT THE MONTH OF JULY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND SATURDAY BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY.
WITH THE SHIFT TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN
THE PAIR OF DAYS, THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WOULD
AID IN A BETTER SHOT FOR SEVERE STORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LARGELY REMAIN. OVERALL WINDS GENERALLY
WAVER BETWEEN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL OF SOUTHERLY CHANNELING FOR MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS COULD LINGER
A BIT LONGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY
WATERS. OTHERWISE, THE BIGGER STORY IS THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
THREATS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES REBOUND WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS BY SAT NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/KVH
MARINE...AVS/LFR/KVH
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