252
FXUS61 KLWX 250743
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
- 2) RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, BRINGING DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SCATTERED DUE TO WEAK FORCING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN UL
TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG IN TO OUR REGION, LEADING TO FALLING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH TUESDAY'S DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S TO UPPER 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGH 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEAT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
RISING INTO THE 1,500 TO 2,500 J/KG RANGE. WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR AND HEIGHT FALLS, GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE DAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME SAGGING OF THE
SURFACE ISOBARIC PATTERN WITH ITS POSITION INDICATIVE OF A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG
WITH TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUCH STORM. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, THE THREAT FOR
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE CORE DIURNAL HEATING HOURS.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA-
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY MID-WEEK. A SHIFT TO POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD GRADUALLY QUELL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DEW POINTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLE.
TUESDAY'S HOT TEMPERATURES SEEM TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LARGELY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY. SLIGHTLY
LOWERED DEW POINTS ALLOWS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S MOST
NIGHTS. THIS SUBTLE DECREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS AIDS LOWERING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AROUND 20% THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT
OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY IMPACTING KDCA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
MONDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD OF A
NOTABLE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE-RELATED RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CEILINGS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TAKE PLACE
THEREAFTER AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THIS WIND SHIFT
OCCURS, EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
OUT OF THE EAST. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP IN INTENSITY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CHANNELING EFFECTS COULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR
SO, WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WIDER WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. A CONVECTIVE
THREAT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
NEED OF SOME SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES REBOUND WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING ACTION STAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/KVH
MARINE...AVS/BRO/KVH
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