542
FXUS61 KLWX 260000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS NOTED EARLIER TODAY, RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WAS RATHER LIMITED
NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- (1) GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
- (2) RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE APPALACHIANS MAY STILL SPARK
A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE
DRY TONIGHT WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AIDED
BY MID-LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING WARMTH AND INSTABILITY AND
FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONTINENT. IN PARTICULAR, A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE IS LIKELY TO
DOMINATE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST ALONG EASTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH AMERICA. WHILE THE CORE OF LOWER HEIGHTS STAYS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO HUDSON BAY, AN ELONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS
PRESENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS CONFIGURATION WOULD
SUPPORT A MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SWEEPING UP AND OVER THE PROMINENT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.
TUESDAY STILL PRESENTS ITSELF AS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE PERIOD
AS THE CALENDAR CLOSES ON THE MONTH OF JULY. ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES
SOMEWHAT WASH OUT THE SIGNAL OF THIS SHORTWAVE, DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS SHARPENING SYSTEM ENCROACHING ON THE AREA BY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY MODEST HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS, A
DEEP WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
IN PLAY FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT AT THE SAME TIME IS
ACCOMPANIED BY MANY OF THE USUAL QUESTION MARKS. MANY GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING. HOW
QUICKLY THESE SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS SCOUR OUT WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER INSTABILITY IS FULLY REALIZED DURING THE CORE HEATING HOURS.
AS IT STANDS NOW, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SITS IN
A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS THE EARLIER BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT REDUCED SHOWER CHANCES AND LESS HUMIDITY AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS HIGHS PUSH TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THIS IS
SIMPLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE MOST PART, WITH VFR
(FL035-FL060) CU AT TIMES. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A PROB30 FOR
POSSIBLE -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY VARY
BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
TUESDAY WILL PRESENT MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESTRICTIONS.
THIS WOULD BE DRIVEN BY ANY LOW CEILINGS FROM MORNING SHOWERS
AND CONVECTIVE-BASED ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING SUBSEQUENT DAYS ALTHOUGH SOME POP
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD YIELD A FEW BRIEF IMPACTS.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY WITH CHANNELING
EFFECTS LIKELY BRINGING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES LATE IN THE EVENING. ACTIVE
CONVECTION WILL ALSO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WATERWAYS. THIS MAY INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH SOME WINDS COULD NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GRADUALLY RISING WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH NEAR A FULL MOON.
ANNAPOLIS WILL LIKELY REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY
TUESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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