949
FXUS61 KLWX 270752
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SHIFTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV AND CENTRAL MD IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY.
- 2) DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
HUMIDITY AS WELL WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS YIELDING INCREASING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CHANCES FOR AM
PRECIPITATION HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY. IN THE AFTERNOON,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT.
DESPITE MORNING PRECIPITATION, GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING SHEAR LEADS TO AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
TYPE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES YIELDS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENT AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS DURING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL YIELD A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THURSDAY, THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD HERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC,
BRINGING REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CALMER CONDITIONS
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE UPPER
80S DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES
INCREASING BEYOND THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE.
MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS EAST,
CLOUD COVER & PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
OFFSHORE AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOOK
MARGINAL AS OF RIGHT NOW, WITH NCAR'S AI ML ALGORITHM ONLY SHOWING A
LOW-END 5%-15% PROBABILITY AS OF THE 00Z RUNS. NONETHELESS, WEEKEND
SHOWERS ARE A POTENTIAL LIKELIHOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MIDWEST.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IMPACT THE TERMINALS. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A PROB30 FOR
POSSIBLE -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH IN THE
MORNING DURING RAIN SHOWERS AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW CEILINGS, REDUCED VISIBILITIES, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE FRONT
TRACKS OFFSHORE. WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY ON
THURSDAY, WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL LIKELY BE HANDLED WITH
AN MWS AS OPPOSED TO A SCA. WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH SCAS
LIKELY. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL ALSO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WATERWAYS. THIS MAY INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, ABRUPT WIND
SHIFTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS AND FLOWING NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK COMBINED WITH A FULL MOON LEAD
TO GRADUALLY RISING TIDAL ANOMALIES. AS OF 3:50 THIS MORNING, ANNAPOLIS
IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO HIT MINOR FLOOD STAGE DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OTHER SENSITIVE TIDAL
LOCATIONS READING ACTION STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT
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