127
FXUS61 KLWX 281936
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
336 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT GARRETT COUNTY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH A LOCAL FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- 2) A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND MONDAY AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ALONG WITH A LOCAL FLASH FLOOD RISK.
MCV OVER CENTRAL PA AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NW PA (AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL SERVE AS
FORCING TO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS, BUT CLUSTER AND BOWING SEGMENTS MAY EVENTUALLY
DOMINATE, PRESENTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. DISCRETE STORMS
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WELL. A TORNADO THREAT MAY
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET
PIVOTS INTO THE AREA AND THE TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT.
THE AXIS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
THIS TIME, WHERE WINDS COULD ALSO BE BACKED A LITTLE MORE CLOSER
TO THE BAY. AT THE MOMENT, THIS THREAT APPEARS A LITTLE MORE
ISOLATED AND UNCERTAIN, BUT DISCUSSION WAS HAD WITH SPC THAT
SOME AREAS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD DISCRETE
STORM MODES DOMINATE. THE FORCING FEATURES LISTED ABOVE COULD
ALSO LEAD TO SOME UPSCALE GROWTH OR TRAINING AS THE STORMS GET
CLOSER TO THE BAY. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FROM BALTIMORE TO THE NORTHEAST, AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CLEAR
OFF TO THE EAST BY 10 PM, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND MONDAY AT
THIS TIME.
THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE FINALLY PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE NON-ZERO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY, PRIMARILY
AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
BEING DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW,
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE WEST INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER & PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH A PRETTY WEAK WIND
FIELD ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE
SOME LEADING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE
GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, FROM NW TO SE.
STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
ALL POSSIBLE. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR IMPACTS ARE LIKELY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 15-20 KT. FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING AND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT BWI AND MTN.
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH 10-15
KNOT WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM EITHER DAY, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.
SATURDAY AND (ESPECIALLY) SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DAYS WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL
WATERS AND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL BAY. APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WATERWAYS WITH SMWS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
MAY INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A NEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AS THEY CHANNEL
UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH A FULL MOON ARE KEEPING TIDAL
ANOMALIES ELEVATED TODAY. ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST WINDS
COULD LEAD TO WATER LEVELS DECLINING ENOUGH TO KEEP IT SHORT.
MANY TIDAL LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TIDAL ANOMALIES SLOWLY DECREASE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ006-008-011-014-
506>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-535>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-535>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CJL
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