870
FXUS61 KLWX 290116
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND TORNADO WATCH HAVE BOTH BEEN
CANCELLED AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND MONDAY AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND MONDAY AT
THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS EACH
DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE THE DRIER DAY.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW,
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE WEST INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER & PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH A PRETTY WEAK WIND
FIELD ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SHOWER OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL IMPACT IAD, DCA,
AND BWI FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS AND COULD IMPACT CHO IN 3 TO 4
HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED.
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH 10-15
KNOT WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM EITHER DAY, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.
SATURDAY AND (ESPECIALLY) SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DAYS WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL 6AM WEDNESDAY. APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR BRIEF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE OPEN WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AS THEY CHANNEL
UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MANY TIDAL LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TIDAL ANOMALIES SLOWLY DECREASE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-535>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/CJL
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CJL
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