804
FXUS61 KLWX 291414
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1014 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WILL BE INCREASING SKY COVER TODAY GIVEN STRATOCUMULUS IN NW
FLOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DAILY RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DAILY RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS EAST, CLOUD COVER &
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH A
PRETTY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. NONETHELESS, WEEKEND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE POSSIBLE WEEKEND SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGHS HOVERING IN THE
UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOW 70S (EAST
OF BR) AND MID 60S (WEST OF BR). BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN
ON SUNDAY, COINCIDING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, BUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE 10-20% INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED INSTABILITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA (BALTIMORE AREA).
STRATOCUMULUS MAY ALSO BE MORE PREVALENT AT TIMES. THE SURFACE
HIGH LIKELY REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. ON FRIDAY, SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY REACH 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES) ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY TO KCHO WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS BLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING PRECIPITATION. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE BAY.
WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY, WINDS
FURTHER DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WEEKEND, WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
LEADING TO POSSIBLE ADVISORIES EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS REMAINING IN ACTION STAGE DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS WEEKEND, TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY RISE
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KVH
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KVH
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