978
FXUS61 KLWX 291841
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE GREAT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO ITS EAST SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS, SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH SPACED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME MEAN
THIS RAINFALL WOULD BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A ROBUST CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR THE HUDSON
VALLEY. A SPOKE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN PA, SPARKING SOME SHOWERS. THESE ARE MOVING QUICKLY
SSE-WARD, WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY
REACHING NORTH CENTRAL/NE MD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD ALSO OCCUR IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALLEGHENIES. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY REMAINS DRY FOR NOW,
BUT THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPOKE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NE MD.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
CUMULUS MAY BE BROKEN AT TIMES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (UP TO 25
KT AT TIMES) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL RENEW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
8 PM. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT ALONG THE BAY. WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, BUT THE BEST WIND
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RETRACT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. TRIED TO
CAPTURE THIS THEME WITH THE NEW ADVISORIES, BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS
MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY NORTHWEST WINDS,
ALTHOUGH SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY STILL REACH ACTION STAGE
DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS WEEKEND, TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY
RISE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANNAPOLIS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
537-540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
538.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR
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