875
FXUS61 KLWX 221403 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE AND DISCUSSION #1 WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE RISK OF SOME
SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE RISK OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
WATCHING CLOSELY SHOWERS OVER CHARLES AND SOUTHERN PRINCE
GEORGES COUNTIES WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN. LUCKILY, IT IS FALLING IN PLACES WHERE FFG IS HIGHER
THAN COMPARED TO ST. MARY'S COUNTY. ONCE THIS CELL MOVES OUT, WE
SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THERE COULD BE
A LULL, BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MAY MAKE TO AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW WITH THESE, AS THEY WILL BE RUNNING INTO STABLE
SURFACE AIR. HOWEVER, THEY COULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDER. SOME FOG MAY THEN DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND VA
PIEDMONT, BUT IT WILL HAVE TO DO SO PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTION ENSUING IN STRENGTHENING NW WINDS. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DEWPOINTS DROP SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AS DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACK EAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH CONDITIONS FEELING BRIEFLY FALL-LIKE AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR AUGUST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGE LARGELY IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY TUESDAY,
AND SUB-60F DEWPOINTS COULD PERSIST UNTIL MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID-
WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
AS THE WEEK CONTINUES, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY.
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION, MOIST AIR FROM
THE SOUTH WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA, BRINGING BACK AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY & TEMPERATURES BACK TO LATE-AUGUST NORMALS. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS THROUGH, EXPECT SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEDIUM-RANGE SEVERE INDICES STILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE, WHICH MAKES RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THOUGH, IF THE SHOWERS AND UP BEING LESS INTENSE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW-END MVFR RATHER THAN DROPPING TO
IFR. LATEST TAFS REFLECT SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE, WITH AREAS
FURTHER EAST A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN THOSE TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWER AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN, FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CHO AND PROBABLY MRB AS WELL SUNDAY
MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD CREEP INTO IAD AS WELL.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS TERMINALS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAIN
OUT OF THE WNW TO NW, GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (EXCEPT CHO WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 8 KNOTS LOWER).
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING TEMPORARILY REDUCED CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING
AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD BRING DOWN GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE WOULD LIKELY COME IN SHORT BURSTS, AND
SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT BRING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL WIND GUSTS AS WE WILL BE STABLE.
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WNW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 18 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH, BUT NOT SEEING A
PROLONGED PERIOD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE
SCA THRESHOLDS LATER THAT EVENING IN A CLASSIC SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING EVENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/CJL/SRT
MARINE...LFR/CJL/SRT
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