462
FXUS61 KLWX 230044
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
844 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TARGETED FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FLOODING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK,
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
AN ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD FOR THE REGION AS AS
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA, WHICH HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS OF SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2-4" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. A TARGETED FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTED FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND CHARLOTTESVILLE (AS OF 9PM) WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD FREDERICKSBURG AND THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WV, THE
ALLEGHENIES AND NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL STEADILY MOVE
EAST TOWARD THE I-95 METRO LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS LOW DUE TO THIS CONVECTION HAVING FASTER
FORWARD SPEED, ANY TRAINING OR SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER AN URBAN
AREA COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY CONTINUE WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY PERSIST UNTIL EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
NW FLOW SUNDAY. BREEZY AND COOLER SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED FAIR WX
CLOUDS. A SPRINKLE HERE IN THERE IS POSSIBLE, BUT MAINLY DRY.
ON MONDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHER IN DRY AIR FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THESE SUB-60F DEWPOINTS COULD PERSIST UNTIL MIDWEEK. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS COULD LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. OVERALL, WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 70S AND MID 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK,
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SURFACE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY.
AS THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION, HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO LATE-
AUGUST NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY.
LATE NEXT WEEK, MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT DROPPING NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON
BAY PUSHES THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH TEMPO
GROUPS ADDED WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST. ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY
NEEDED AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SCT CLOUDS 050 SUNDAY.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NW
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, AND COULD REACH SCA LEVELS FOR PARTS OF
THE WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE
SCA THRESHOLDS LATER THAT EVENING IN A CLASSIC SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING EVENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ026-027-029-
037>040-050-051-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRR/LFR/KVH
AVIATION...LFR/KVH
MARINE...LFR/KVH
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