986
FXUS61 KLWX 231912
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
312 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
- 2) WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH BROADER TROUGHING EXTENDING OUTWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. A COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW HAS PROGRESSED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE, WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BENEATH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE VERY SHORT-
LIVED. IF A DEEPER STORM WERE TO DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL, GIVEN COOLER, DRIER
THERMAL PROFILES, MINIMAL CAPE BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, AND
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH VERY LITTLE LOW- LEVEL SHEAR, BUT
RESPECTABLE SHEAR (AROUND 35-40 KTS 0-6 KM) THROUGH THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID-
WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, DRY, PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY AND AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN AMPLITUDE, SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. AS
THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION, HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO LATE-AUGUST NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY WITH MODELS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT
DRAPING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY PUSHES THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AND COULD LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS ARE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE DEEPENING AN
UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS COULD NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS LATER THAT EVENING IN A CLASSIC SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
EVENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TODAY IN WESTERLY FLOW. ANNAPOLIS MAY REACH ACTION STAGE
AROUND HIGH TIDE, BUT NO TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJP/KVH
AVIATION...KJP/KVH
MARINE...KJP/KVH
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