922
FXUS61 KLWX 250734
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
334 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED ONE OF THE KEY MESSAGES TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE STORM
THREAT ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TURNING MORE WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TURNING MORE WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL USHER IN A SOUTHERLY WIND ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF VERTICAL MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK, WHICH COMES WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT WARMTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WHILE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY, SOME WEAK/MODEST
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.
THE MORE NOTABLE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY. A MIXTURE OF THERMODYNAMIC
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENT, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THESE WILL ALIGN OR NOT. WHILE INSTABILITY LEVELS
INCREASE WITH THE UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, VERTICAL SHEAR
GENERALLY AVERAGES AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL SETUP LENDS ITSELF
TO A NUMBER OF QUESTION MARKS. HOWEVER, THURSDAY DOES LOOK LIKE
A TYPICAL LATE AUGUST DAY WITH A FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE
REGION. THIS WOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, MANY OF WHICH WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT BEING A LATE ARRIVER AND IN NO
PARTICULAR HURRY TO CLEAR THE REGION.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE MID 70S TO 80S, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN TO OUR REGION. THIS AIRMASS BRINGS WITH IT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE UPPER AIR WAVE PATTERN FLATTENS INTO
ZONAL FLOW. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDS,
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, A FEW OF WHICH MAY WARRANT SOME RESTRICTIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
FRONTAL TIMING, SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A FEW ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD YIELD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY SHOULD YIELD LIGHT WINDS, WITH NO
MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUB-SCA CRITERIA BEFORE
ANOTHER RAMP UP ENSUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS WILL LIKELY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY, THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY GUSTS ON THURSDAY.
THIS ALSO COMES WITH THE RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION, MANY
CAPABLE OF NEEDING SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY COULD ALSO CREATE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WATERS, PERHAPS NECESSITATING A FEW
SMWS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH WINDS
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT
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