801
FXUS61 KLWX 251938
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED MINIMALLY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AMIDST
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
- 2) AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AMIDST
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN A ROBUST
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FIELD (THICKEST NORTH) THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING AND LOCAL HEIGHT RISES. LOW HUMIDITY AIR STICKS AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, ALTHOUGH PASSING CLOUDS MAY PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL MIXING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TICK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, WHICH
COMES WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH
A POP UP SHOWER ALONG THE TERRAIN COULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS VERY LIMITED TO NO COVERAGE.
MORE NOTABLE FORCING ARRIVES THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
THESE FORCING FEATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE LOCAL
AREA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE FRONT LIKELY LAGS TO THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH BUT NOT UNTIL THE
EVENING. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO SOME
QUESTION ON INSTABILITY AS THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS. IF
EVERYTHING WERE TO COME TOGETHER THOUGH, MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SHEAR OF 20-30 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BEFORE AND STORMS ARRIVE, IT WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
THE COLD FRONT MAY BISECT THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, HOT
WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT MAY WEAKEN OR STALL TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERALL, THE HIGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SHOVE MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY, WITH WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BUILDS EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, HOTTER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK INTO THE 90S BY MONDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE
RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE (EXCEPT CHO).
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM
TONIGHT. FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MRB LATE TONIGHT, BUT DENSE FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE FRONT STALLS NEARBY
THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY IS PROVIDING PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOME AREAS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY START INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR 20 KT GUSTS WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING. AN ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE.
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY,
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY GUSTS
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE RISK OF
STRONG, GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THESE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY.
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH WEST. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FRIDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO RISING WATER LEVELS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY
SEE ACTION STAGES, BUT ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/KVH
MARINE...ADS/KVH
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