401
FXUS61 KLWX 280133
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDELY SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
AND WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SEVERE AND FLOOD THREATS
DIMINISHING DURING THAT TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STORM DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- 3) INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STORM DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
A FEW HEAVY/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AS OF ABOUT 9:30 THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO (NW SUBURBS OF DC IN
PARTICULAR), AS WELL AS NEAR SCOTTSVILLE TO LOVINGSTON VA. A
COUPLE OF OTHER WEAKENING STORMS NEAR BWI AIRPORT AND IN WESTERN
MD (APPROACHING OAKLAND IN GARRETT COUNTY) ARE ALSO BEING
MONITORED AS THEY SLOWLY LOSE STEAM.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE SEVERE/FLOOD THREATS HEAVE DIMINISHED.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AROUND DC, AS WELL AS IN NELSON COUNTY VA AS THESE
STORMS ARE THE MOST POTENT AND HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
LEFTOVER TO WORK WITH.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95 IN AREAS THAT GOT A
SOAKING RAIN EARLIER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY
STALLING JUST SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN VA TO THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
WINDS SHIFT QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WHILE
WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT, THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. LINGERING
HUMIDITY AND BUILDING HEAT MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND AS
HIGHS REACH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS US WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS HEAT INDICES REACH TO THE LOW
100S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE RIDGE, SOME OF THESE
DISTURBANCES COULD BE NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA COME THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PART OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW, MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY,
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN THE
HUMID/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETREAT SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER OUR
AREA. SEVERAL OF THE AI MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL
AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG
WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANY STRONG DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z-04Z
FROM BWI/DCA TO CHO. TS SHOULD DEPART IAD SHORTLY, AND MAY STAY
SOUTH OF MTN ALTOGETHER AT THIS POINT. MRB MAY SEE A WEAKENING
TS APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-95 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OUTSIDE
OF ADDITIONAL SCT'D TS ACTIVITY FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF DCA/IAD
TO CHO.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY, BUT REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING.
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE GREATER RISK MAY BE SOUTH OF
MARYLAND.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS. NORTH WINDS TO START THE DAY SATURDAY BECOME EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL/KRR/EST
AVIATION...DHOF/KRR/EST
MARINE...DHOF/KRR/EST
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