803
FXUS61 KLWX 280718
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY.
A BROAD/WEAK TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA TODAY WHILE A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA ALONG I-95. STILL
ANTICIPATING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AND ACROSS CENTRAL VA, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE
HAD YESTERDAY. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 00Z TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL VA,
AROUND FREDERICKSBURG, AND ACROSS ST. MARY'S COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SAT-SAT NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MIDWEEK.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE AUGUST CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE UPPER
90S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 100S.
A MORE NOTABLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A RESULT, BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN BY HOW MUCH
AND HOW QUICKLY. FOR NOW, MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN THE HUMID/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETREAT SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
MOVE OVER OUR AREA. SEVERAL OF THE AI MODELS INDICATE INCREASING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE, ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANY STRONG
DISTURBANCE. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, LEADING TO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STILL A RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 AND DOWN BY KCHO. SO, HAVE A PROB30 GROUP ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. IT SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE.
MARINE
A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMWS. DRY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE MAY BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT SAT MORNING
AND SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. DIRECTION MAY VARY BETWEEN WESTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR
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