833
FXUS61 KLWX 281415
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DRY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA
ALONG I-95. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AND ACROSS CENTRAL
VA. AS OF 10AM, SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF ADDITIONAL POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHEASTERN MD
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE VA PIEDMONT AND OVER INTO SOUTHERN MD.
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
THAN WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
00Z TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS
CENTRAL VA, AROUND FREDERICKSBURG, AND ACROSS ST. MARY'S COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SAT-SAT NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MIDWEEK.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE AUGUST CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE UPPER
90S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 100S.
A MORE NOTABLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A RESULT, BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN BY HOW MUCH
AND HOW QUICKLY. FOR NOW, MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN THE HUMID/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETREAT SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
MOVE OVER OUR AREA. SEVERAL OF THE AI MODELS INDICATE INCREASING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE, ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANY STRONG
DISTURBANCE. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, LEADING TO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT OPERATIONS AT THE TERMINALS, WITH EXCEPTION TO THE MRB
AND IAD TERMINALS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IAD COULD GET
CLOSE TO SOME CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED TO THE EAST
AND ALONG I-95. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A PROB30 GROUP ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. WE MAY NEED TO GO TEMPO THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION STARTS POPPING. IT SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE.
MARINE
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMWS. DRY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE MAY
BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT SAT MORNING AND SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. DIRECTION MAY VARY BETWEEN WESTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
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