884
FXUS61 KLWX 170054
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE NOW
DISSIPATED, THOUGH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH A RETURN OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- 2) RAIN-FREE AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY,
BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE NOW
DISSIPATED. EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THURSDAY, THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES, THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS
TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, MAKING A GRADUAL APPROACH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST
THROUGH VIRGINIA AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN, THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOULD DECREASE. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH THIS IS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE/HEATING
CAN TAKE PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE'RE
EXPECTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN, WITH PARTS OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAKING A RUN
AT 90.
BY FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN VA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN-FREE AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ON SATURDAY, BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN FROM
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO A RAIN-FREE START TO THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, SIGNALS ALSO POINT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS GETS
SHUNTED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH, ALLOWING UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING,
WITH PROB30 GROUPS ADDED TO MOST TAF SITES. COULD SEE CIGS
APPROACH MVFR THRESHOLDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WHICH YIELDS
A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD APPROACH 15
TO 20 KNOTS, WITH ANY STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARD CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND, GUSTS UP TO 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST, BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY INTO TONIGHT, FAVORING
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS.
BY THURSDAY, THIS RIDGE EDGES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WHICH
COULD NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE OVER WIDER
WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DUE TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY WHICH SHIFTS WINDS
OVER TO NORTHERLY. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE COULD AGAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC, MARINE WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND, GUSTS UP TO 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY, THE ONSHORE
FLOW HAS RAISED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO JUST BELOW 1 FOOT. THIS HAS
BEEN ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW OF THE MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS INTO
THE ACTION STAGE. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. ALTHOUGH NO
TIDAL SITE IS SHOWN TO EXPERIENCE ANY COASTAL FLOODING, IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE AT
ANNAPOLIS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRO/KVH/KRR
AVIATION...BRO/KVH/KRR
MARINE...BRO/KVH/KRR
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