299
FXUS61 KLWX 190117
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY.
- 2) DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY,
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ATOP A SHALLOW COOL
LAYER WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING SOUTH AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE DISURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE DAYS
FOLLOWING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD AS WINDS FLOW NORTHEASTERLY. AS A RESULT, DAILY
SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THESE
DISTURBANCES SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROP
ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THIS COOLER- THAN-
AVERAGE WEATHER PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS NEARBY
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TOWARDS
THE BAY & COASTLINES, WIND GUSTS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED MID-TO-
LATE WEEK AS THESE DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO TRACK OFFSHORE.
OVERALL, COASTAL FLOODING COULD BECOME SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT
FOR NEXT WEEK AS THESE ELEVATED WINDS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN STRETCHES ON.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING, BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CLEARING IS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON,
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS/OVERCASK SKIES WILL REMAIN PREVALENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS GENERALLY FLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING INTERMITTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND A NORTHERLY SURGE. WINDS DIMINISH SAT
AFTERNOON, BUT PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON
EASTERLY FLOW.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
POTENTIALLY APPROACH GALE CONDITIONS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE WATERS. SHOWERS & POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE TROUGH
TRACKS, WINDS COULD STAY ELEVATED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY FLOW NORTHEASTERLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK, EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO
RISE EACH DAY WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BECOMING LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY REACHING MODERATE CATEGORY BY MID NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-
537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/KJP/SRT
MARINE...LFR/KLW/KJP/SRT
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