854
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCHES FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE
WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CLOUDY, RAINY, AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
- 2) DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY, RAINY, AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
AS OF 330 AM, CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT THERE ARE A FEW EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEVELOPING JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH. AN ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED
CAD WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY THE RAINFALL AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
CLOUDY SKIES, ON AND OFF SHOWERS, AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BY THE TIME
ALL IS SAID AND DONE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL, WHICH SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE GIVEN
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-30 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FIRST TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MARYLAND, WITH THE DRIER AIR MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL ON THURSDAY BENEATH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, AND WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AS A COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A REX BLOCK DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TRANSITIONS TO
MORE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES RESULTS IN RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THIS SUBTLE SHIFT ALLOWS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO DRIFT A BIT TO THE EAST, SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LIKELY KEEPS ANY COASTAL LOW
THREAT AND RAINFALL THREATS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH INHERENTLY LESS PREDICTABILITY WITH
BLOCKY PATTERNS, THE END OF THE WEEK STILL BEARS WATCHING FOR ANY
RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN. WHILE SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
THURSDAY, GREATER CHANCES FOR REDUCED CLOUD COVER ARRIVE AREAWIDE ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, IF NOT SUNDAY,
DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WIND DIRECTION
BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY, AS THE LOW LIKELY STARTS DRIFTING
AWAY AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR CEILINGS/VISBYS, SHOWERS, AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MTN AND
POSSIBLY BWI COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF PERIODS WITH MVFR. IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT, WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN VFR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER A BIT LONGER AT CHO. EVEN WITH
THE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS, AND RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT EACH DAY.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EARLIER GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING
SOUTHERN MARYLAND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER WATERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BETWEEN THE
COASTAL LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITHIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND A COASTAL LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES
SHAPE OFFSHORE. ANOMALIES REMAIN ON THE RISE TODAY, WITH LEVELS
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ACTION STAGE/MINOR FLOOD STAGE
LINE WITH THE TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY AT
ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, DAHLGREN, AND ALEXANDRIA, BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE. AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT FOR MOST SITES ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC, AND
FROM ANNAPOLIS SOUTHWARD ON THE BAY. MINOR FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY EACH SUCCESSIVE TIDE CYCLE AT THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST, THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH,
SO LOCATIONS LIKE BALTIMORE, HAVRE DE GRACE, AND CHESAPEAKE CITY
LIKELY WON'T EXPERIENCE FLOODING. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY (ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT BEING THE MOST LIKELY),
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS STILL TOO LOW FOR WATCHES. NUMEROUS COASTAL
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED TODAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KJP
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