529
FXUS61 KLWX 221902
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MUCH OF THE AREA IS SHROUDED IN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, WITH
STEADIER AND HEAVIER ELEMENTS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN FOR THE
TIME BEING AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MONITORING RISING TIDE LEVELS
AND COASTAL FLOODING TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CLOUDY, RAINY, AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
- 2) DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY, RAINY, AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
AN ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED CAD WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REINFORCED BY RAINFALL AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDY SKIES,
ON AND OFF SHOWERS, AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE
AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL (INCLUDES WHAT HAS FALLEN SINCE
MONDAY, AND WHAT IS YET TO FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY). THIS SHOULD
BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-30 MPH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FIRST WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MARYLAND, WITH THE DRIER AIR MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL ON THURSDAY BENEATH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, AND WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS A COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START WEAKENING ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH AND
THEN WEST TOWARD THE COAST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO OUR EAST, BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT IT COULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS I-95. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD START WEAKENING THU, BUT THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT THE WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, THERE
ISN'T A DEFINITE CLEAR TREND OF WHAT WINDS WILL DO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/MIST, AND GUSTY
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST MD, EXPANDING SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR
AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN VFR BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
LINGER A BIT LONGER AT CHO. EVEN WITH THE IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS, AND RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST (15-20
KT GUSTS). VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY.
FAIR WEATHER THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE BREEZY
SIDE THROUGH FRI.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH-END SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY,
AND GALES COULD LINGER OVER THE WIDER WATERS OF THE MID BAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH AT LEAST THU DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM A NEAR FULL
MOON. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME FOR ANNE
ARUNDEL AND ST. MARY'S COUNTIES AND A NEW ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA. ALL OTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED IN TIME DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION EVENT OF COASTAL
FLOODING. EXPECT SOME WATCHES TO BE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY WED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page