588
FXUS61 KLWX 231340
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER THIS EVENING
IN ST. MARY'S COUNTY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM EDT. MADE A FEW
EDITS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TO REDUCE
EXTRANEOUSLY HIGH POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BLUE RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CLOUDY, SHOWERY, AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- 2) BREEZY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS NOR'EASTER IMPACTS NORTHEAST U.S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... CLOUDY, SHOWERY, AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING
BACK IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY DRIED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, OTHER THAN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. ALONG & EAST OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS A BIT MORE BROKEN
UP/SHOWERY IN NATURE.
A STRONG COLD-AIR DAMMING (CAD) WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN, CLOUDY
SKIES, AND COOL TEMPERATURES. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
REACH PEAK STRENGTH TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK DOWN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD,
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION/LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END, IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND THEN LOW TO MID 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES TO
THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT TO OUR WEST FINALLY
STARTS TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW, AND THEN PROGRESS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS, A COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF TO OUR EAST IN
RESPONSE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH
AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL AS A
RESULT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TOMORROW, AND THEN UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS NOR'EASTER IMPACTS NORTHEAST U.S.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE (BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS)
BEGINS TO WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LI. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER. A
FEW MEMBERS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NJ /
DELMARVA COAST THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF EXACT POSITION, WE ARE
LIKELY TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BRINGING IN BREEZY, WARMER, AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. IF THE
NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS. SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE ISN'T A
DEFINITE TREND FOR THIS WEEKEND, SO BE SURE TO KEEP TRACK OF THE
FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE NOR'EASTER IS EVENTUALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MARKING THE RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 930 AM, MOST LOCATIONS ARE OSCILLATING BETWEEN MVFR/VFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY SLOW
SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS LIKELY COME
TO AN END AT MOST TERMINALS MID- LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE DC METRO
TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
A STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO NJ
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS WEEKEND (GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE). SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
IT WILL DEPEND HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE GETS TO OUR AREA. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS SURROUNDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH END
SCAS (GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT) IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS TO GALES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DUE TO THE STRONG
NOR'EASTER THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO
OUR AREA, EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SO BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITHIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. CHANGES TO
HEADLINES WERE RELATIVELY SMALL OVERNIGHT, WITH THE VARIOUS
HEADLINES JUST BEING PUSHED A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT THROUGH TONIGHT
ARE FOLLOWED BY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AT ALEXANDRIA, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING IS FOLLOWED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT DAHLGREN AND SOLOMONS
ISLAND, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES EXTEND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOMALIES WILL BE LOWER FURTHER NORTH ON THE BAY, BUT WE'LL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON BALTIMORE AND HAVRE DE GRACE LATER IN THE
WEEK, AS WELL AS DC ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. DECISIONS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THIS MORNING REGARDING WHETHER WATCHES
ARE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
536-538>540.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...KJP/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KJP/KRR/SRT
MARINE...KJP/KRR/SRT
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