321
FXUS61 KLWX 231921
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. MARY'S AND ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
POSSIBLE FOR ALEXANDRIA AND DAHLGREN GIVEN INCREASING WATER LEVELS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) REMAINING DAMP AND COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND MORE SUN TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK.
- 2) REMAINING BREEZY WHILE TURNING WARMER THIS WEEKEND DESPITE
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO IMPACTS FROM COASTAL NOR'EASTER
NEARBY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... REMAINING DAMP AND COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE CAD WEDGE IS CURRENTLY AT
IT'S PEAK YIELDING SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 INTO CENTRAL VA AND THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE DELMARVA/NC COAST BEFORE
RIDING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
NOR'ASTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE AND PASSING SHOWERS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL VA. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOME BRIGHTENING IN
THE CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED UP ACROSS NORTHEAST MD AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MID 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CLEARING
FRIDAY AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO THE REGION. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LEADING TO
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE OPEN AND MIDDLE
WATERS AS WELL AS OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TOMORROW, AND THEN UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS NOR'EASTER IMPACTS NORTHEAST U.S.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE (BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS)
FINALLY WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LI. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER. A FEW
MEMBERS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NJ /
DELMARVA COAST THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF EXACT POSITION, WE ARE
LIKELY TO BE ON THE DRIER (SUBSIDENCE) SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN BREEZY, WARMER, AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. IF THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS. SAFE TO SAY THAT
THERE ISN'T A DEFINITE TREND FOR THIS WEEKEND, SO BE SURE TO KEEP
TRACK OF THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE NOR'EASTER IS EVENTUALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MARKING THE RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR PUNCHES IN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION.
TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-66/US-50 HAVE PREDOMINANTLY RETURNED
TO MVFR WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD CHO.
IFR CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BETWEEN 00-03Z/7-10PM WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CIGS EXPECT IMPROVING
VSBYS AS WELL WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS COMING TO A CLOSE THIS
EVENING AS THE CAD WEDGE ERODES AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE CORRIDOR LATER
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH SOME TAPERING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO NJ
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS WEEKEND (GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE). SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF BWI/MTN, BUT
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE GETS
TO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. OVERALL
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TAPER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY PULLS
AWAYS.
MARINE
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS AROUND SOUTHERN MD
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE NEEDED IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY.
HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS TO GALES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DUE TO THE STRONG
NOR'EASTER THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO
OUR AREA, EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SO BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITHIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ST. MARY'S AND ANNAPOLIS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AT ALEXANDRIA, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IS FOLLOWED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT DAHLGREN AND SOLOMONS ISLAND, COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES EXTEND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOMALIES WILL BE LOWER FURTHER NORTH ON THE BAY, BUT WE'LL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON BALTIMORE AND HAVRE DE GRACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
AS WELL AS DC ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. DECISIONS WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REGARDING WHETHER ANY
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
536-538>540.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/EST/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/EST/SRT
MARINE...KRR/EST/SRT
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