821
FXUS61 KLWX 241838
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KING GEORGE COUNTY WAS EXTENDED
TO ENCOMPASS AN ADDITIONAL HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS THEY ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ADDITIONALLY, A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FOR TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A NOR'EASTER BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) WARM AND CALM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOR'EASTER BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A NOR'EASTER WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE
TRACKING NORTH TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THE NOR'EASTER
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY,
ALTHOUGH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
DAILY. CLOUD COVER DECREASES OVERNIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO A FROST ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S, HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES IN THE ALLEGHENIES
WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER AS IT TRACKS OFFSHORE.
SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, LEADING TO
GUSTIER WINDS AND POTENTIALLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT, MODELS THIS
MORNING HAVE BACKED OFF LEADING TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARM AND CALM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS NOR'EASTER ADVANCES FURTHER OFFSHORE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BRINGING HIGHER PRESSURE, CALMER WINDS,
AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDTIONS TO OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND MONDAY MORNING SHOULD THIS WEEKEND'S
NOR'EASTER TRACK FURTHER WEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
MIDWEST CONTINUES TO RAISE DAILY TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
WARMING INTO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING OUT OF THE MIDWEST BRINGS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK TO OUR REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS A NOR'EASTER TRACKS NEARBY.
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. EACH AFTERNOON,
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS.
CEILINGS IMPROVE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE WEST.
ON SUNDAY, OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING EAST OF I-95, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF
WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
NOR'EASTER.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. HERE, A GALE WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER
THE WATERS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GUSTING 20 TO 35
KNOTS. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OR POTENTIAL GALE
FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS
NEARBY. IF THE NOR'EASTER WERE TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST,
GALE CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL GALE HEADLINES
NEEDING TO BE ISSUED.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS WEEKEND'S NOR'EASTER TRACKS TO THE
WEST, SCA LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT WITHIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW IS UNDERWAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ANNAPOLIS, STRAITS POINT, AND ALEXANDRIA THROUGH FRIDAY. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR DC, DAHLGREN, AND SOLOMONS
ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE BAY
(BALTIMORE NORTHWARD) ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER DUE TO
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND.
THE FORECAST GETS VERY COMPLICATED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND POTENTIALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EXTREME AMOUNT OF
FORECAST SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO TIDAL LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW, AND WHETHER ITS
ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW WATER TO BE ABLE TO START TO
DRAIN OUT OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. FURTHER COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT IT'S ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ057.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
543.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KVH
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