750
FXUS61 KLWX 251907
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A BREEZY AND WET WEEKEND WITH RAIN
SHIELD REACHING AS FAR WEST AS PORTIONS OF I-81 AND THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. NO FRESH WATER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, BUT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
POTOMAC RIVER AND ST. MARYS COUNTY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE STARTING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND
PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A NOR'EASTER BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND SOME RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) WARM AND CALM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOR'EASTER BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND SOME RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER WITH RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
RAIN WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN PORTIONS OF I-81 SATURDAY NIGHT. QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND AN
INCH OR MORE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-95, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST
MARYLAND. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SINCE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. AS FOR WINDS, WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ALONG THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. NOR'EASTER WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARM AND CALM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEFORE
RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS WEEKEND'S NOR'EASTER SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVERHEAD BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
AS HIGHS GO FROM LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80F WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THERE'S STILL A LOT OF VARIANCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IF THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN WE COULD SEE HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AT SOME
POINT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE GUSTY N OR NNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT
SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD START GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BUT STILL A LITTLE BREEZY. RAIN IS NOW LIKELY AT
ALL AIRPORTS STARTING SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST, BUT REDUCE IN
MAGNITUDE SOMETIME ON MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. GALE WARNINGS
WERE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH EARLIER TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE OR TWO MORE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR ANNE ARUNDEL, CALVERT, AND ALEXANDRIA, BUT AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE N EXPECT BLOWOUT TIDES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT THOSE LOCATIONS AND LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH ON THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST AT DAHLGREN
AND ST. MARYS COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. AS NOR'EASTER
DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SNAP BACK EVENT MAY OCCUR WITH
RENEWD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
536-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ531-
532-539>541.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ531-532-539>541.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-542-
543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KVH
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KVH
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