548
FXUS61 KLWX 280147
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT AT ALEXANDRIA HAS
BEEN CANCELED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A NOR'EASTER WILL BEGIN WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY.
- 2) WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOR'EASTER WILL BEGIN WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THE NOR'EASTER WILL START WEAKENING TONIGHT AS IT PIVOTS NEAR
THE DELAWARE BAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE DEPARTS, THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO START
PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
WINDS GUSTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE WEEKEND, AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE IN A BROAD MOISTURE SHIELD LEFT
BEHIND BY THE UPPER LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT LOWER IF CLOUDS ARE THICK. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARM, TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AS THE NOR'EASTER AND ACCOMPANYING LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MID/UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD IN EARNEST. THESE ABOVE AVERAGE 500-MB
HEIGHTS COINCIDE WITH A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SWINGING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS REGIME
FAVORS DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
BY THE LOW MAY BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SO
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS LIKELY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES A BIT THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MORE SUNSHINE BRINGS WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY HIGH AGREEMENT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THE MID 80S
ON THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, MAINLY REVOLVING AROUND HOW FAR SOUTH
AND HOW QUICKLY A COLD FRONT CAN PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
CURRENTLY, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL WITH RAIN
CHANCES AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
DEPENDENT ON SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
OVERALL, THE FARTHER AND SOONER THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION, THE QUICKER WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME FURTHER DETACHED FROM
THE NOR'EASTER AND AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE NW THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN DROP BELOW 10 KT.
WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON TUESDAY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, FAVORING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER
WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. HOWEVER,
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MIDWEEK. WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS
LATER IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A DOWNWARD TREND ON WATER LEVELS HAS BEEN SEEN AT MOST TIDE
GAUGES THIS EVENING, BUT LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER BAY HAVE SEEN A
SLIGHT RISE IN ANOMALIES. HAVRE DE GRACE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. ALEXANDRIA HAS CRESTED BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE, SO THE EARLIER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED AS A RESULT. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR SOLOMONS ISLAND AND DAHLGREN FOR THE TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT.
BOTH LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY CREST VERY CLOSE TO THE ACTION
STAGE/MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WATER LEVELS TOMORROW, BUT ANNAPOLIS COULD
STILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538-
542.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KJP/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KJP/KVH
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KJP/KVH
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