449
FXUS61 KLWX 110752
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ADDED, WITH THE OTHER HAZARDS
MAINTAINED AS IS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR EXPANSION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) REMNANTS OF ISAIAS BRING RAIN, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TODAY.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN COOLER
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMNANTS OF ISAIAS BRING RAIN, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TODAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS IS LIGHT, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN CENTRAL VA. A FEW STATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL VA BLUE
RIDGE HAVE ALREADY MEASURED OVER 1" OF RAIN, WITH MOST OF CENTRAL VA
AT OR JUST ABOVE HALF AN INCH. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED PICKING UP IN
THE ALLEGHENIES, WITH THE STRONGEST GUST AT 43MPH IN GARRETT COUNTY.
SYNOPTICALLY NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED AS THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS IS NOW A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS HELPING INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF RAIN. THE INTERACTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST AND
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVERGENCE
/ BROAD FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT PWATS OF 2" ARE SURGING NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM NC
AND SOUTHERN VA.
RAIN TOTALS ARE GENERALLY STILL AROUND 1.5-2.5" ACROSS THE AREA.
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN 3-4" OF RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS CONTINUES. SOME OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE DC
METRO LATE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THEN SLOWS RIGHT AROUND DC, BEFORE QUICKLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST
LATE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THE METRO AREA COULD CERTAINLY
LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL AND
RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE FLOOD WATCH NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
RISK INTO MOST OF CENTRAL VA, WITH A MARGINAL UP INTO THE I-81
CORRIDOR TO THE MD/PA BORDER. ONCE THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN DEPARTS
TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE AREA ENTERS A BRIEF LULL
WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THERE'S A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD. A WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THIS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY PRESENT INSTABILITY, THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO FUEL ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, SO THE TORNADO THREAT IS
GOING TO BE FRONT AND CENTER, THOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK REMAINS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP, AND HOW FAR NORTH THAT INSTABILITY WILL REACH. RIGHT NOW,
IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA IS GOING TO BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 50.
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE WHERE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE CUTOFF LOW
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP COMES TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS FINALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE. HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA IS GOING TO BE DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN
COOLER CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
BRIEF RIDGING MAY BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN LIKELY REMAINS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
MAY SNEAK SOUTHWARD.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD THE PROGRESSION OF
ADDITIONAL FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE TREND REMAINS FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
AS HIGHS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING, AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY BUILD BACK IN THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS LATE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST
WINDS TAKE HOLD, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PASSING SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.
IT IS BECOMING UNLIKELY WE SEE SUSTAINED GALE CONDITIONS, THUS THE
GALE WARNING IS LIKELY TO BE DROPPED FOR THE CENTRAL BAY IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.
WINDS OVER THE WATERS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL PICK BACK UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS GOING TO BE NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DROP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD FLUCTUATE IN & OUT OF SCA CRITERIA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS DUE TO THE NEW
MOON WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, AND IT IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL ONES NEED TO BE
ISSUED. FOR ANNAPOLIS, IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER IT
REACHES MODERATE FLOOD, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW. WATER LEVELS QUICKLY DECREASE MONDAY MORNING AS OFFSHORE
WINDS FOLLOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ509.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ507-508.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ036>040-050-051-501-
502-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ534-537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ534-537-543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...KRR
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR
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