373
FXUS61 KLWX 120650
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
MOSTLY ENDED NOW, AND WITH IT THE THREAT FOR FLOODING.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CLEARING TODAY AS WARMING TREND BEGINS, THEN LATE WEEK
FRONTS BRING RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLEARING TODAY AS WARMING TREND BEGINS, THEN LATE
WEEK FRONTS BRING RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE REMNANT CUTOFF LOW OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE ISAIAS IS SLOWLY
SPINNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS GOING
TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING, SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. WHILE
CLOUDS WON'T CLEAR TILL THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE
SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH. THIS ALLOWS TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
70S. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25MPH THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. DRY AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THAT ALSO
BRINGS THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS REACH AROUND
80F ON TUESDAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COOL TO THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADS TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS,
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
IT'S ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 30S ACROSS THE RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GOING TO STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
REGION DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON TO ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH CLOUDS ARE GOING TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25
KNOTS TODAY, THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH TO WEST
WINDS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A NEARBY FRONT
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MRB AND CHO WHERE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH WINDS IN
THE MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING GUSTING 20 TO 30
KNOTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
CHANNEL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS CAUSING WINDS TO APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS TURN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR
SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/AVS
AVIATION...KRR/AVS
MARINE...KRR/AVS
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