535
FXUS61 KLWX 121426
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1026 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS, THEN
LATE WEEK FRONTS BRING RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS,
THEN LATE WEEK FRONTS BRING RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION OUT AFTER A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL FROM REMNANT ISAIAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25MPH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. DRY AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THAT ALSO
BRINGS THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS REACH AROUND
80F ON TUESDAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COOL TO THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADS TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS,
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
IT'S ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 30S ACROSS THE RIDGES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH CLOUDS ARE GOING TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND
20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH TO WEST
WINDS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A NEARBY FRONT
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MRB AND CHO WHERE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH WINDS IN
THE MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING GUSTING 20 TO 30
KNOTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OPEN CHANNEL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY,
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS CAUSING WINDS TO APPROACH SCA
CONDITIONS. WINDS TURN WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR
SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KLW/KRR
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