286
FXUS61 KLWX 130116
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT
AND THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG WAS EXPANDED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOW PRESSURE, MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY, WILL DRAG A STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIND
AND COLD.
- 2) RELATIVELY DRY & VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE, MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY, WILL DRAG A STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIND
AND COLD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY, THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FRIDAY. A MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TO PARTS OF THE REGION WILL STALL BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT AND CONNECT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. AS BOTH THE WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PUSH NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD MID- LATE
WEEK, A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. THE WARM FRONT MAY BRING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE LOW
WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH; HOWEVER, THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER TO ANY
PARTS OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
GUST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH AS MUCH AS 40 MPH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATE
WEEK INTO THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, MOST AREAS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND
SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF US 33 COULD FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT AND HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY. AREAS INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY COULD HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS THEY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL AREAS SHOULD FEEL THE AFFECT OF A
SURGING WARM FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. THIS, OF COURSE, WILL BE RIGHT BEFORE THE
STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD AND DROPS OUR TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60 DEGREES ANYWHERE. AS A MATTER OF FACT, HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS COULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. SUNDAY
MAY ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S IN THE WEST AND NORTH AND NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELATIVELY DRY & VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT, LEAVING ONLY SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST AREAS HAVE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS FOG WOULD LIKELY BE
SHALLOW IN NATURE, CONFINED TO TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING AREAS
AND RIVER VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RAISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-
OCTOBER.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS SLIDES WESTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, NUDGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OFF OF THIS HIGH SLOWLY ADVANCES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS
BEFORE STALLING OUT IN VIRGINIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLIDES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. WITH
THIS STALLED FRONT LINGERING IN THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT, WHICH
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW, INCLUDED
MARGINAL BR AT CHO, IAD, AND MRB SINCE THERE WASN'T A STRONG OR
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEARBY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS RANGING AROUND 10-15KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY TURNING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. A NEARBY FRONT
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MRB AND CHO WHERE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY, SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH WINDS
IN THE MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING GUSTING 20
TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER AS WINDS
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KTS AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR
SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY WITH ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL CLIMB TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
ANNAPOLIS MAY NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH THE TUESDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS SHOULD STABILIZE AND THEN DECLINE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/KRR/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/KRR/KVH
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/KRR/KVH
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