697
FXUS61 KLWX 141852
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEARING IF NOT BREAKING DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MULTIPLE
STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
FROM SOUTHWEST PA AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND. DRY,
BUT WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
MAINLY WEST OF I-95, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
RECORD BREAKING HEAT FOR SOME THIS AFTERNOON. PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWS
A NEW RECORD LIKELY AT IAD OF 88 DEGREES BEATING THE OLD RECORD OF
86 BACK IN 1975. RECORDS ARE ALSO BEING CHALLENGED AT DCA WHERE
TEMPERATURES 88 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED BEATING THE OLD RECORD
OF 87 BACK IN 1975. MEANWHILE, BWI HIT 88 DEGREES BEATING THE
86 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1975. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 COMBINED WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED
T-STORMS OVER NORTHEAST MD HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURES A BIT
COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
RECORDS AT HGR AND MRB THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR A LIST OF TODAY'S RECORD HIGHS.
THE LEADING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO EXIT SOUTHEAST PA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL MD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE COLD FRONT DROPS
DOWN OUT OF SOUTHWEST PA/SOUTHEAST OHIO. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
TOWARD WESTERN MD AND THE EASTERN WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE BEFORE SINKING DOWN INTO NORTHERN VA AND THE
BALTIMORE/DC METROS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12Z
HI-RES CAMS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN REGARDS TO TIMING (GIVE OR TAKE
AND HOUR) AND COVERAGE WITH A GENERAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/US-15 AND NORTH OF US-48/I-
66.
CURRENT TIMING PUTS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN MD AND EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 21-00Z/5-8PM BEFORE ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD NORTHERN VA AND THE DC/BALTIMORE METROS AROUND 23-03/7-11PM.
CAPE VALUES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 600-900 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35-45 KTS MAINLY NORTH OF I-66/US-50.
WITH THAT SAID, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF US-15 AND BACK INTO THE
WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV MOUNTAINS. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FROM ROMNEY, WV/CUMBERLAND, MD
WEST TO OAKLAND, MD AND SOUTH TOWARD FRANKLIN, WV/MOOREFIELD, WV.
ELSEWHERE CONVECTION BECOMES A BIT MORE ISOLATED WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY BEYOND THE DIURNAL
PERIOD ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WEDGES DOWN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND ON/OFF SHOWER CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO THE WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE QUICKLY AS A RESULT ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MAINLY EAST OF US-15
AND TOWARD THE I-95 METROS) AS A TRUE STRONG (FALL) COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. IT WILL GET BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS QUICKLY FALL AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND 30-40 MPH ELSEWHERE.
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE ALLEGHENIES
AND BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WINDS OVER A LARGE SPATIAL AREA (I.E
IMMEDIATE SURGE ALONG THE FRONT AND DISJOINTED TROUGH COMPARED TO
THE PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACK END). A SQUEEGEE LINE OF GUSTY
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN TAP INTO THE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.A POTENT UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES OUT ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS FRIDAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE FALLING INTO 60S AND 70S (40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS) FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S (30S MOUNTAINS) FRIDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND. DRY, BUT WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE AND NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY WEST OF I-95, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRANSVERSE THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE LAST OF ANY PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT
AND EAST OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND. CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH CONDITIONS, AREAS OF FROST
HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO FORM ACROSS A LARGE PART OR THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FROST AND/OR FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, THE MOUNTAINS TYPICALLY HAVE THEIR FIRST
FREEZE OCTOBER 11, SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREA OCTOBER 21, AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOVEMBER 1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND THEN EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODIFY MORE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 20-21Z/4-5PM. SKIES WILL TREND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH SCT-BKN CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 060-120 KFT (ALONG AND NORTH
OF I- 66/US-50). A SPOTTY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 20Z
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70/I-68 ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SPARSE GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE ALTOCUMULUS DECK.
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21-04Z/5PM-12AM. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF MRB WITH SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS. STORMS WILL ENTER
AREAS WEST OF CBE BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM BEFORE ADVANCING TOWARD
MRB/IAD/BWI BETWEEN 23Z-03Z/7-11PM. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN
MAKE IT TO CHO GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING.
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS AREA WHEN THE FRONT STALLS
THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AS THE
WEDGE SETTLES IN. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS RESULT WITH THE WEDGE ERODING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO CROSS FRIDAY. THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SQUEEGEE LINE
OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST 25-30 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 5PM THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM. THE FRONT WILL KICK NORTHERLY WINDS BACK INTO SCA
CRITERIA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH BACK TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. GALE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY TO ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER
WATERS OF THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
THERE COULD BE GALES SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO HAVE NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO
30 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, OCTOBER 14.
OCT 14
CLIMATE SITE RECORD HIGH
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 87F (1975)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 86F (1975)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 86F (1975)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK)85F (1975)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR)84F (1975)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO)94F (1954)
MARTINSBURG, WV (MRB) 90F (1928)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KLW/EST
AVIATION...KLW/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST
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