719
FXUS61 KLWX 150053
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECORD HIGH MAX WERE SET AT ALL THREE MAJOR AIRPORTS, ANNAPOLIS,
AND HAGERSTOWN. DCA SET THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST 90F READING
IN A CALENDAR YEAR. RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT HGR,
IAD, AND MRB.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
DRY, BUT WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE AND NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY WEST OF I-95, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.
A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR/SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WEDGES DOWN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND ON/OFF SHOWER CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE DAY. THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE
WASHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO
THE WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO SHIFTING
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO SWITCH
BACK TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE QUICKLY AS
A RESULT ALLOWING FOR A QUICK SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A
STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MAINLY EAST OF US-15
AND TOWARD THE I-95 METROS) AS A TRUE STRONG (FALL) COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. IT WILL GET BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS QUICKLY FALL AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND 30-40 MPH ELSEWHERE.
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE ALLEGHENIES
AND BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WINDS OVER A LARGE SPATIAL AREA (I.E
IMMEDIATE SURGE ALONG THE FRONT AND DISJOINTED TROUGH COMPARED TO
THE PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACK END). A SQUEEGEE LINE OF GUSTY
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN TAP INTO THE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.A POTENT UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES OUT ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS FRIDAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE FALLING INTO 60S AND 70S (40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS) FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S (30S MOUNTAINS) FRIDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND. DRY, BUT WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE AND NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY WEST OF I-95, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRANSVERSE THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE LAST OF ANY PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT
AND EAST OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND. CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH CONDITIONS, AREAS OF FROST
HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO FORM ACROSS A LARGE PART OR THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FROST AND/OR FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, THE MOUNTAINS TYPICALLY HAVE THEIR FIRST
FREEZE OCTOBER 11, SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREA OCTOBER 21, AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOVEMBER 1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND THEN EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODIFY MORE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO CHO GIVEN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING. DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS
AREA WHEN THE FRONT STALLS THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS WITH
A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AS THE WEDGE SETTLES IN. WINDS TODAY WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS SWITCH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS RESULT WITH THE WEDGE ERODING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO CROSS FRIDAY. THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SQUEEGEE LINE
OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST 25-30 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM. THE FRONT WILL KICK NORTHERLY WINDS BACK INTO SCA
CRITERIA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH BACK TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. GALE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY TO ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER
WATERS OF THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
THERE COULD BE GALES SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO HAVE NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO
30 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM WERE SET AT ALL THREE MAJOR AIRPORTS TODAY
WITH DCA SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR THE LATEST DATE OF 90F READING
IN A CALENDAR YEAR BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF OCT 11 IN 1919.
IN ADDITION, RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AT
HGR, IAD, AND MRB BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND THE FACT THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/EST
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/EST
MARINE...LFR/KLW/EST
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