803
FXUS61 KLWX 151400
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 EDT. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER WARMING THIS MORNING, AS WELL
AS POPS TO REFLECT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY, THEN MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
- 2) FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY, THEN MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
A PASSING COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS TODAY, THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DROP TO THE 50S TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WHICH IS
GOING TO CAUSE WINDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO VEER SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL SURFACE MOSTLY WASHES OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO.
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH
HIGHS BACK UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IS NOW PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THE LATER ARRIVAL
ALSO ALLOWS FOR MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL ACT TO FUEL
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
LIKE OF CONVECTION, WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, A QUICK QLCS
TORNADO SPIN-UP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO NORTHERN MD, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK COVERING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LAGS FAR BEHIND. THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE ANAFRONTAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
DUE TO THE LESS AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE PROBABLY
DON'T REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL,
GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST STORY IS GOING TO BE THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
A SHARP TRANSITION TO COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THIS DRY AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT CREATES AN IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST TO FORM,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-95. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH INTO THE HIGH 50S THIS WEEKEND, NOTICEABLY COOL FOR MID-
OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR ADDED CONTEXT, THE MOUNTAINS
TYPICALLY HAVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OCTOBER 11, SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREA
OCTOBER 21, AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOVEMBER 1.
TO START OFF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND REMAINS OVERHEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME TEMPERATURE GRADUALLY
WARM, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FALL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY IS GOING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. MVFR THEN
EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH CHO
BEGINNING THE EARLIEST. THE IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THEN CIGS IMPROVE AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN CONDITIONS
QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST UP TO 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
WINDS QUICKLY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY.
MARINE
A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM THIS MORNING DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK WIND GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING LIKELY PRODUCES SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35-40 KNOTS.
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. REGARDLESS, HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS START TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL GUST AROUND 20-25
KNOTS.
SCA-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS COULD LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT/KVH
AVIATION...KRR/SRT/KVH
MARINE...KRR/SRT/KVH
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